AMNA NAWAZ: All eyes are on Cuba, as the world# waits to see what will happen to the leaders## and the people of the Caribbean island nation.# President Trump says he wants to take action,## while the leaders of the country remain defiant.

At first glance, life in Cuba's capital of# Havana feels familiar, the famous Malecon## Avenue by the sea, the colorful buildings# and antique cars.

But these streets scenes,## quieter than just a few months ago,# disguise a city and a nation now in crisis.

JUANA PEREZ, Havana Resident (through# translator): The power hasn't come## back on at my house, and we have been# about 12 hours w.. well, I plan to face the day# as usual, just as Cubans do.

AMNA NAWAZ: This week, the country faced# the third wide-scale failure of its power## grid since December.

Without enough gas,# less than half of Havana's trash trucks## are allowed to run.

Piles of garbage# spill over into the historic streets.

And as the sun sets, a now routine darkness takes# over, with 10 million people left without light,## pitch-black streets, and no electricity to# cook the little food people are able to find.

PEDRO RAMOS, Havana Resident (through# translator): We are two older people,## both in our 70s, and she's also sick.

Our# food has spo.. of chicken to try and save something to# eat because the situation is really bad.

SILVIA PEREZ, Havana Resident# (through translator): Really bad,## really bad.

We have nothing left.

We.. so I can get some rest from this country.# May God forgive me for speaking like this.

AMNA NAWAZ: Cuba has long dealt with blackouts.# A system hampered by an aging power grid,## U.S.

sanctions, and fuel shortages was further# crippled after an American raid in Venezuela,## Cuba's ally, led to a total energy blockade,# and to ramped-up threats from President Trump.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States:# Taking Cuba, I mean, whether I free it, take it.## I could do anything I want with it, you want to# know the truth, a very weakened nation right now.

AMNA NAWAZ: A message echoed by# Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

MARCO RUBIO, U.S.

Secretary of State: So,# they're in a lot of trouble, and the people## in charge are -- they don't know how to fix# it, so they have to get new people in ch.. AMNA NAWAZ: Back on the island,# anxiety about what comes next.

LUIS ENRIQUE GARCIA, Havana Resident (through# translator): What will happen to Cuba,## the world asks.

And we're also here# at this moment saying to oursel.. what will happen to us?

But I believe, I truly# believe, there will be dialogue and understanding.

AMNA NAWAZ: And defying President Trump's# sanctions, two tankers carrying crude oil## are on their way to Cuba after Russia# declared its unwavering solidarity.

To share more about the evolving situation# in Cuba, including the political stakes, I'm## joined by Lillian Guerra, a professor of Cuban and# Caribbean history at the University of Florida.

Professor Guerra, welcome to the# "News Hour."

Thanks for joining us.

LILLIAN GUERRA, University of Florida:# Thank you so much for having me.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, at the end of that# report, you heard a little bit of## hope from that gentleman there about dialogue# between the U.S.

and the Cuban government.

What do we know about those talks# and what could come of them?

LILLIAN GUERRA: Well, first, we# know very little about the talks.

We know that there are two major members of the# Castro family who have been the spokespeople,## allegedly.

At least one of them# is the grandson of Raul Castro,## and the other has a similar relationship.# He's the grand-nephew of both Fidel and Raul.

Now, both of these men have very,# very high ranks in what is GAESA,## the Cuban military's corporate conglomerate# that really controls 80 percent of the economy.## And they have no legitimacy in the eyes of the# Cuban people.

It is important to note, though,## that because they control the economy and they# also control the armed forces, they are apparently## the ones that Trump's administration is turning# to in order to negotiate some form of transition.

And I find that very problematic,## along with probably a majority of Cubans# in this country and those on the island.

AMNA NAWAZ: So put that together with the U.S.# calls for a change in leadership in Cuba.

Could## one of these people involved in the talks now# be in charge?

And what would that look like?

LILLIAN GUERRA: In fact, one of# them, Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga,## is often called the economy czar.

And he was put forward as early as November of# 2025 by the Cuban Communist Party itself as a## replacement for President Miguel Diaz-Canel# when he completes his term in office.## So if he were to take power, it would actually be# exactly what the Cuban Communist Party would like.

I think that right now we don't know exactly what# is next.

And the Cuban people don't know either## because they often don't have electricity# and can't charge their phones.

They don't## have access to television.

Their government# censors the news.

So they're really reliant## in many ways on social media and word# of mouth to find out what's happening.

I think that the best-case scenario would# be one in which the Cuban government would## finally do something to alleviate# the economic and political repression## on the island by simply saying# that they will agree to legalize## opposition political parties and that in some# way or another they will reduce the management## of the economy by the armed forces, which really# should have no role in managing the economy.

AMNA NAWAZ: We should point out too a# lot of people in Cuba rely on family## members outside of the country to send in# supplies, to send in money to help sustain## them.

How does all of that impact the Cuban# economy and what does that look like now?

LILLIAN GUERRA: Yes, actually, if Marco Rubio# is right about one thing, it is that there is## still a subsidy in Cuba and that subsidies are# what the Cuban government has been dependent on.

So that subsidy is the billions of dollars a year# in goods and in cash that Cubans like myself send## their relatives, and we will find any way to do# so.

A lot of money comes in simply with mules,## which are people who travel to Cuba from# Colombia, from Mexico, from New York, wherever## they can travel, and they charge a commission# and they bring in things for our family.

We are allegedly, according# to many economists' measures,## supporting about 40 percent of the population.

I# think that part of the problem with that scenario## in general is that not everybody has family# abroad, and the vast majority of Black Cubans,## who comprise at least 40 to 50 percent of# the population, do not have family abroad.

It's more than poverty.

It's immiseration.

And## all we have are different degrees of# immiseration among the Cuban people.

AMNA NAWAZ: Professor, I have got about# 30 seconds left, but I have to ask.

Cuba's## faced crises before.

Do you see this one# leading to real change in the country?

LILLIAN GUERRA: I think# that something will happen,## because expectations are extremely high,# both on the island and in South Florida.

And, frankly, the longer it# takes to come to some decision,## the more likely it is that Cubans will take# to the streets and start attacking the Cuban## Communist Party headquarters in different# places and perhaps simply confront the state## themselves.

And that would be devastating,# I think, because nobody has weapons in Cuba.

All they have are their ideals.

AMNA NAWAZ: That is Professor Lillian Guerra of# the University of Florida joining us tonight.

Professor, thank you so much.

LILLIAN GUERRA: Thank you.