AMNA NAWAZ: There seems to be little movement on the resumption of talks between the U.S.

and Iran to end the war that the Americans launched alongside Israel over two months ago.

There's also almost no movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital bottleneck that's essentially cut off 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supply.

Last week saw the fewest crossings since the war began.

Today, the United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC, the cartel that's largely controlled global oil supplies for decades, leading to more uncertainty and questions about when the financial pain will stop.

For perspective, we're joined now by Karen Young, a political economist and senior research scholar at Columbia University.

Great to see you.

Thanks for being here.

KAREN YOUNG, Columbia University: Thanks for having me.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, the UAE has been rumored to want to leave OPEC for some time now.

Why now?

Was the war in Iran the last straw?

KAREN YOUNG: No, I think actually this timing is probably the least disruptive, because this doesn't change volumes that are going out tomorrow.

The UAE can't increase its production and get to market any faster because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and they're at capacity for the oil that's flowing through the pipeline through Fujairah.

So it doesn't change anything from a market and supply perspective.

But, yes, it's true, within OPEC, the UAE had the most stringent quota based on what it had capacity to produce, and its quota was much smaller.

So it's been a point of tension, particularly with neighbor Saudi Arabia, for quite some time now.

AMNA NAWAZ: The UAE energy minister actually gave an interview to CNN International earlier today to try to explain their decision.

Here's part of what he had to say.

SUHAIL AL MAZROUEI, Minister of Energy, United Arab Emirates: We are totally at an uncomfortable level of inventories.

That would require additional resources to fulfill it.

So the world before the Strait of Hormuz is different than the world today.

AMNA NAWAZ: He was, of course, talking about global inventories and shortages there, but he seems to be saying leaving OPEC will allow producers to ramp up production and fill the shortages.

Will it?

KAREN YOUNG: Once the Strait of Hormuz is open, yes, and it would be helpful to see an increase in production, particularly as we have to refill the shortages that have been part of the last two months.

But it won't be an immediate fix.

And so I think that the UAE motivation is that they have wanted to expand production.

They have invested about $150 billion into their oil and gas resources, and they want to produce more gas with the oil.

So, this is something that nobody's really talking about.

The more oil that they drill offshore, there's gas associated with that oil.

And there's a big demand for gas inside the UAE for electricity generation.

So this falls in line with some of their domestic industrial ambitions as well.

AMNA NAWAZ: This is about broader ambitions for the UAE than beyond just oil production.

KAREN YOUNG: That's right.

It's for electricity generation for A.I., for example.

It's about their diversification agenda inside the country and able to make decisions of their partnerships, who are their consumers of oil and gas and renewables, how do they get to them.

This matters a lot, I think, for their ability to supply China with oil and perhaps gas as export in the future.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, they are as hamstrung as anyone else to get out oil supply while that strait is closed.

Talks with Iran appear to be a stalemate, no sign of the strait reopening any time soon.

How do you look at that right now in terms of where global oil supplies are?

KAREN YOUNG: So this remains the largest supply shock to global oil markets and gas markets we have ever experienced.

And as we get farther along into this crisis, what's happening is that we don't have that oil getting to market, about 16 million barrels a day that's absent from the Strait of Hormuz.

But then countries are drawing down on their inventories.

This could be strategic stockpiles or what firms and commercial entities hold.

We're starting to draw into those inventories.

And, as we do, that means that the price has to climb, right, because it's not being replaced, it's not being refilled.

So we're going to get more price pressure as we have this kind of supply shortage.

And, eventually, there will be a reaction to that.

And that's what we call demand destruction.

And that's where we start to feel the pinch, not just in transportation, but in the fuels that are associated made from oil, anything like naphtha or LPG, things that go into plastics, the petrochemical feedstocks, which is going to make everything we buy and use basically more expensive.

AMNA NAWAZ: So let's be more clear on that from the consumer's point of view.

Gas prices just hit a four-year high, right?

We know consumers are already paying elevated prices, not just at the pump, but in terms of airline tickets and the food prices that they pay, in terms of the cost of shipping goods as well.

What should they expect to see in the weeks and months ahead?

KAREN YOUNG: Gas prices are going to be higher, so particularly in transportation fuels.

That's gasoline, that's jet fuel, that's fuel for shipping, marine fuel, diesel, anything that's used in a large construction project or in mining.

All of those things become more costly.

AMNA NAWAZ: And even if the strait was open tomorrow, there's a downstream impact, right?

What are we looking at?

KAREN YOUNG: That's right.

One of the issues is that in order to restart the wells that have been shut in could take several months.

This could take three to four months in the case of Kuwait, perhaps longer in Iraq.

So, getting back to normal is not a one-day thing.

First, it's getting ships into the Strait of Hormuz, having them load, having them then exit safely, and getting that volume of traffic that we had before February 28.

And we're a long way away from that, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz has mines and we require military escorts of ships.

AMNA NAWAZ: Getting back to the UAE here, the decision they made here to leave OPEC seemed to say they put their national interests ahead of being part of this legacy institution, which has controlled the global supply for 60 years now, more than that.

How do you look at that decision?

Is this reducing the impact and influence of OPEC overall?

KAREN YOUNG: Well, it's not uncommon.

Countries can leave OPEC and rejoin.

Ecuador has done that.

Qatar left OPEC.

They're more of a gas supplier than an oil supplier anyway.

Angola left OPEC.

So it doesn't rule out the potential of cooperation or even rejoining.

But, yes, it is a signal of independence politically and economically that the UAE is thinking about the future after this war and the independence and the kind of oil production, gas production, energy production and industrial growth they want to have at home.

AMNA NAWAZ: Karen Young, always appreciate your time and insights.

Good to see you here.

Thank you so much.

KAREN YOUNG: Thank you.