AMNA NAWAZ: The 2026 primary season enters the homestretch with only a handful of states remaining after polls close tomorrow in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming.

Our Politics Monday duo is here to break down those races and more.

That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Good to be here.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let's begin in Alaska, where voters will head to the polls in nonpartisan primaries tomorrow.

We know the top four contenders in the U.S.

Senate race head to the general in November.

Amy, this is a race Cook Political and you have rated as a toss-up.

Just days before the primary, though, there was some reporting about a campaign staff shakeup by the Democrat in this race, the former Representative Mary Peltola, senior officials removed from their jobs.

What is going on there?

And can a Democrat win?

AMY WALTER: Yes.

Well, first, look, what's going on there, the Peltola campaign says this isn't really a lot about nothing.

This is just shifting job responsibilities of the campaign manager to a different responsibility and putting the deputy campaign manager into more of a day-to-day responsibility.

Regardless, it gets to your bigger question, which is, can a Democrat win in this state?

Now, Mary Peltola has actually proven she can win in this state.

She won here in 2022 as a congressperson.

Remember, Alaska has only one member of Congress, so she has had to run statewide before, won statewide.

And even when she lost reelection in 2024, she still outran Kamala Harris by 11 points.

Her bigger challenge is that even 11 points wasn't quite enough to get over the finish line.

This is a very Republican state.

And, for her, her biggest concern right now, even as Trump is less popular than he was in 2024, is that the Democratic brand isn't any more popular.

Already, we saw this last week former presidential nominee Kamala Harris sent out a fund-raising e-mail saying, I want to contribute money to Mary Peltola, give to my PAC so I can give her money.

The Peltola campaign said, yes, thanks, but no thanks.

We don't really want to be associated with those on the Lower 48 who have a Democratic big D label attached to them.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Tam, I know you're following this drama around the Dans Sullivan.

This is a phrase I believe you coined here.

Two Republicans, one is, of course, the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, both are on the ballot.

What are you watching for here, other than confusion on the... TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Right.

So there is Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher and Forest Service employee, and Dan S. Sullivan, the senator for the state.

And they are both Republicans who will be on the ballot.

Now, it's a top four primary, so it is quite possible that both Dans Sullivan will make it through to that general election, which then has ranked-choice voting.

There's actually been all kinds of interesting shenanigans in this race with outside super PACs, spending money to boost unheard of basically novelty campaigns and various other people who are also on the ballot in an effort to try to game this.

But because it is a top four primary and because it then becomes ranked-choice voting, there's just less gaming to actually successfully do in this race.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let's turn now to Florida.

I know we have been reporting here, and you have been following the Republican Congressman Cory Mills reelection campaign.

He's being investigated by the House Ethics Committee, allegations of campaign finance violations and domestic violence.

And, Amy, all of that has led Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to say he is not backing Cory Mills in this primary.

This should be a safe Republican seat.

Does that change if Mills wins?

AMY WALTER: I think it absolutely changes if Mills wins.

Now, this is still a very red seat.

Trump won this district by 12 points.

But Trump is much less popular even in Florida than he was back in 2024.

And you also have two members of the Florida delegation.

It's not just Ron DeSantis.

It's two Republican members of the delegation also endorsing against their colleague.

With Trump less popular, Congress obviously not very popular either, in a year like this, to have somebody with this baggage is just one more reason potentially for voters in that district to either vote against a Republican or to stay home.

And so this is why the worry from many Republicans, especially with such a very narrow margin in the House, of just putting any seat in play, and this -- his own baggage puts it in play.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, meanwhile, on the Democratic side in Florida, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, one of the most powerful women on Capitol Hill, is not running in her own district, which was redrawn by Republicans there to be more red.

Instead, she's running in a neighboring district that's actually a majority-minority.

It's a district that's consistently sent Black Democrats to Congress for decades.

What are you watching for in this race?

TAMARA KEITH: Watching to see obviously whether she's able to win in this race.

She is obviously the biggest name running in this race.

And there are multiple other candidates who are African American who are running, but they might end up diluting the vote.

Or - - it's one Debbie Wasserman Schultz versus a field of other candidates.

This is not the only seat that had been or has been held by a Black member of Congress that may ultimately not be held by a Black member of Congress anymore.

The Congressional Black Caucus is expected to shrink because of this Supreme Court decision that threw out part of the Voting Rights Act and led to a scramble of Southern states redrawing district lines to basically draw out the seats that had been held by Black Democrats.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, Amy, before we let you go, we saw House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries this weekend, even as primaries are still under way, making a prediction about what will happen in the next Congress.

He said at least 220 members of the House Democratic Caucus, when, as he puts it, they will take back the majority.

Is that number something you're seeing at Cook Political when you run the numbers?

AMY WALTER: Right.

So 218 is the bare majority.

So what he's saying is, they will have a two-seat -- he's guaranteeing he will have at least a two-seat majority.

AMY WALTER: Now, look, setting the bar low is a classic thing that leadership does, right?

So you can say, oh, my gosh, look at how far above this bar that we have -- we have gone.

But I do think he's being realistic in this case as well.

The map is very, very small.

The redrawing of the lines, especially after the Supreme Court decision, made that field even narrower.

Our prediction right now, our range of outcomes are anywhere from Republicans holding the majority by just three seats to Democrats holding it by 11.

So he's definitely within that range.

TAMARA KEITH: And a 220-seat majority is the thing that nightmares are made of on either side of the aisle.

You do not want to be the leader with that narrow a margin, because, well, we have seen what happens.

It becomes almost impossible to pass legislation, especially on the Democratic side, where you're going to have a bunch of these DSA candidates who will be DSA members of Congress who may not want to fall in line.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, great to see you both.

Thank you.